Showing posts with label INDIAN MARKET WEEKLY OUTLOOK. Show all posts
Showing posts with label INDIAN MARKET WEEKLY OUTLOOK. Show all posts

INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK : 29.Jun.2015 - 3.Jul.2015

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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.06.2015 to 03.07.2015 Expected to trade with a negative bias

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( www.rupeedesk.in )  

 Stock-specific movement is seen dominating domestic equities next week, and the market will track Greece's negotiations with its European lenders and monthly automobile sales figures. While some market participants expect a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) owing to the better-thanexpected advance of the monsoon, others are sceptical. It would be premature to expect a rate cut from the RBI as we are yet to witness the distribution of the monsoon in July and August. In June, we receive only 15% of the total monsoon. There are also heightened prospects of the El Nino wreaking havoc on monsoon by the end of July.

Though the Indian rupee may face a risk of depreciation if Greece defaults on its payment of
International Monetary Fund, the RBI is well-equipped to keep the currency stable. Greece will be meeting its creditors on Saturday to unlock bailout funds for repaying 1.5 bln Euros to IMF by Jun 30. The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen trading between the range of 8300 and 8600 points next week. The 50-share benchmark index ended at 8381.10 points, down 16.90 points or 0.2% and S&P BSE Sensex closed at 27811.84 points, down 84.13 points or 0.3% from Thursday's close.

The index ended down largely weighed by stocks of banks. The outlook on banks has turned
negative after the RBI, in its Financial Stability Report, stated that while the overall risks to the banking system moderated marginally, banks' asset quality had not witnessed any improvement. The Bank Nifty, which ended down 0.7% at 18371.50 points, is seen trading in the range of 18000 to 18700 points in the next week.

Though the central bank has talked about likely increase in stressed assets, the addition is not higher than what was seen earlier. Moreover, improved corporate profitability is seen slowing the pace of deterioration of assets, the government is also well-capitalised to handle stressed accounts, but my sense is that it would wait till the system strengthens before doling out capital to the corrupt public sector banks. Transfer of top-executives and board of directors of state-owned banks will help reduce stressed assets. Market participants will also track monthly sales figures of automobile manufacturing companies. The sales are seen subdued owing to lackadaisical demand in rural areas.
( www.rupeedesk.in )  
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WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS FOR THE WEEK 22.Jun.2015 - 26.Jun.2015

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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.06.2015 (Seen continuing their recovery next week)

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( www.rupeedesk.in )  

Equities are likely to trade choppy with a positive bias next week ahead of the June derivatives expiry on Thursday, with a crucial case on minimum alternate tax also coming up for hearing during the period.

We see the hearing of the petition of Scotland-based Aberdeeen Asset Management Co as a crucial trigger for the market. The hearing was adjourned to Jun 22. We believe that equities have corrected more than necessary and is now seeing short covering.

Domestic institutional investors are also buying as compared to their foreign counterparts are selling and this is seen as a positive factor for the stock market. The fall in Chinese equities, though, is seen as a positive for the market. The Chinese market topping out is seen as a good sign for India. Expectation is that FIIs will start buying or at least stop selling. Developments over Greece will also be watched after the European Council President Donald Tusk summoned heads of state and government of the euro area to meet in Brussels on Monday.

We though, expect some profit booking to take place in equities. The Nifty has gained 3% over the week. Fast moving consumer goods companies are seen weak next week as investors continue to be wary about food safety issues and regulatory troubles.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK & INDIAN MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 15.Jun.2015 to 19.Jun.2015

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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.06.2015 (IT companies are broadly seen positive next week)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Stock indices are seen extending losses as sentiment remains bearish after they ended at eight-month lows Thursday. According to provisional data on the National Stock Exchange website, foreign institutional investors net sold Indian stocks worth 6.23 bln rupees on Thursday.

The Fed (US Federal Reserve) meeting next week, bad earnings, rise in crude and weak rupee are all cumulatively weighing on the market. Some caution during the day is expected ahead of the industrial output data for April and headline inflation rate for May, which are due after market hours.

India's headline inflation rate, based on the new Consumer Price Index (Combined), is likely to inch up to 5.0% in May on the back of higher fuel and vegetable prices. Industrial production growth is likely to ease to 1.3% in April, despite a low base, due to poor core sector output, weak exports and manufacturing activity.

Among individual stocks, shares of Reliance Industries may be under pressure as the Bombay High Court Thursday refused the company's plea to restrain shareholders from making allegations, ranging from siphoning of funds to physical restraining of a shareholder, in company's annual general meeting.

Product approvals from US Food and Drug Administration for Lupin and Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals are set to take their shares higher.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 8.Jun.2015 - 12.Jun.2015

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.06.2015 (Rupee movement eyed for Tech companies)

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 08.Jun.2015 to 12.Jun.2015 (Global events to direct market next week)

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

The equity market is seen weak in the next week, too, with traders likely to take cues from the advance of the Southwest monsoon and debt negotiations between Greece and its lenders. The Southwest monsoon hit the coast of Kerala with a four-day delay and the India Meteorological Department stated that conditions are favourable for its advance to states such as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Greece deferred repaying its loan to the International Monetary Fund to the end of the month and has refused to accept the cash-for-reforms deal proposed by its lenders. Traders will also take cues from the global sovereign bond market. The volatility in sovereign bonds in US, Europe and Asia is likely to continue in the next week until Greece reaches a resolution with its lenders. It is obvious that the Greece worries would continue to boil in the background. On Monday, the market will also react to the US jobs data that will be released overnight.

Some are of the opinion that foreign institutional investors could direct funds from China to India owing to volatility in Chinese equities, but gains are unlikely to be sustainable. The market could bounce back in the next week, but traders are likely to sell on every rise.

While the overall sentiment in the market remains weak, traders remain bullish on the information technology sector as they expect the rupee to depreciate. IT stocks may gain as the rupee is likely to cross the 64-rupee level (against the dollar) in the next week. Reliance Industries will also be in focus in the next week as the company will hold its Annual General Meeting on Friday June 12.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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INDIAN MARKET & MAJOR SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK - 18.May.2015 - 22.May.2015

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 18 to 22.05.2015

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(Range-bound next week; Jan-Mar results in focus)
Share indices are seen range-bound next week with Jan-Mar corporate earnings and developments in overseas markets expected to give direction to equities. The market is in a time-bound correction and it will be range-bound next week. Volatility is likely to persist, with traders advised to maintain caution. But this is seen as a good time for long-term investors to buy stocks.

Foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the cash market again, selling stocks worth 383.1 mln rupees yesterday. The selling is seen putting pressure on the markets by participants as they change their exposure in global markets. The movement in the rupee is also seen giving direction to equities. The slight widening of trade deficit will also be a cause of concern for the market. The deficit widened in April to $10.99 bln against $10.09 bln a year ago. Monsoon is also seen as a trigger for the market over the rest of the month.

Yesterday, the Nifty ended at 8262.35 points, up 38.15 points or 0.5%, while the S&P BSE Sensex ended up 117.94 points or 0.4% at 27324 points. Corporate earnings for the quarter ending Jan-Mar are key triggers for their respective sectors and broader equities.

Among Nifty companies, State Bank of India, Asian Paints, Tata Power Co, Bajaj Auto and Zee Entertainment Enterprises will be releasing their Jan-Mar earnings next week. State Bank of India is expected to report stable earnings for the quarter, especially after most public sector banks reported good earnings. The bank is reporting its earnings on next Friday. Asian Paints, which is reporting its Jan-Mar results on Monday. The company is likely to post a 33% on-year growth in consolidated net profit to 3.81 bln rupees in Jan-Mar, owing improving margins due to lower input costs.

Other companies releasing their Jan-Mar earnings next week are Bharat Forge, DLF, Shipping Corp of India, Britannia Industries, Voltas, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, among others.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK - 27.Apr.2015 - 30.Apr.2015

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 27 to 30.04.2015

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( www.rupeedesk.in )

Domestic indices are expected to trade with a negative bias next week with concerns over minimum alternate tax, weak rupee and disappointing corporate earnings weighing on sentiment. Investors will watch out for companies detailing their Jan-Mar results, and the expiry of the April futures contract.

ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, Idea Cellular, Ambuja Cements, Housing Development Finance Corp, Sesa Sterlite, Axis Bank, and IDFC are some of the major companies that will detail their earnings next week. UltraTech Cement will detail its Jan-Mar earnings on Saturday.

On the global front, the outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee's two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday will be closely watched for cues on when the central bank plans to start hiking interest rates. Progress on Greece's debt talks will also be watched es Euro area's finance ministers are scheduled to meet in Brussels today to discuss repayment of the country's massive debt.

Indices yerterday closed near their crucial support levels and a breach of those levels could see them falling sharply. We expect our view 8250 points as a crucial support for the National Stock Exchange's Nifty.

Yesterday, the 50-stock Nifty ended at 8305.25 points, down 93.05 points or 1.1% from Thursday after moving between a low of 8273.35 and a high of 8413.30 intraday. The 30-share Sensex closed at 27437.94, down 297.08 points or 1.1%. During the day, the index touched a low of 27344.70 and a high of 27829.11.

Among sectors, banks are seen continuing their declining trend while defensive sector stocks are expected to rise in the coming week. Infosys, which posted a disappointing set of numbers for the quarter ended March today, may see a further fall.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK 16.Mar.2015 - 20.Mar.2015

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IT Stocks Outlook for the week –16 to 20.03.2015

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For the week ahead, share indices will take cues from the Budget session of the Parliament, the US Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate hike, and the Wholesale Price Index-based inflation data for February. The first half of Budget session of the Parliament will continue till Mar 20, and will be keenly watched as approval for a hike in the foreign direct investment limit for the insurance sector has raised hopes of more reforms seeing the light of the day.

The US Federal Open Market Committee, meanwhile, is scheduled to commence its two-day
meeting on Tuesday. The US central bank's view is of importance as it is likely to impact flows from foreign institutional investors. WPI inflation data for February will be released on Monday.

Apart from these, the coal block auction and the telecom spectrum auction will keep shares of power, metal, steel and telecom shares in focus.

Despite a number of events on the watch list, the sentiment in the market is subdued after
economic data released post market hours Thursday dashed hopes of another rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. Data showed that in January, Index of Industrial Production moderated to 2.6%, while headline inflation rate for February based on CPI rose to 5.4%, marginally higher than the estimated 5.3%. This disappointment was reflected in the market movement yesterday, with indices shedding 1.5% each to end at an over one-month low.

Deutsche Bank said if the Consumer Price Index based inflation data moves in line with their
expectations in the next six months, then the 6% Jan 2016 target for inflation will not be
difficult to achieve. In such a scenario, the average CPI inflation for FY16 should be about
5.5%, which will allow RBI to cut rates by another 50bps. The bank also believes that the RBI will prefer cutting rates in the first half of the year, rather than the second half, "given that the second half of the year could see financial market volatility increase due to potential Fed policy normalisation".

Stock-specific action is likely to see Blue Star in action after the said it will sell its electronics
and industrial operations to its arm for 1.1 bln rupees.
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 09.Mar.2015 to 13.Mar.2015

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 09 to 13.03.2015

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( www.rupeedesk.in )

Indian Stock indices are seen consolidating in a narrow range in next week on the outcome of
European Central Bank's policy meet on last week thursday and the release of a host of economic data on next week. While on the international front, market participants will watch out for the US non-farm payroll data Friday, in India, the index of industrial production for January and consumer price index-based inflation for February are to be released next week.

We expect banks, pharmaceutical, information technology, and fast-moving consumer goods
companies to gain next week, and we believe that the shift towards defensive sectors like Pharma and FMCG is a short-term direction, till the time action is taken for post budget measures (important bills in budget session).The confidence continues to be good with increasing momentum in mid and small cap stocks.


The banks to recuperate in the early part of the next week and see HDFC Bank as the strongest performer. Among specific stocks, Tata Consultancy Services may gain on positive guidance given by the company on its Jan-Mar earnings and National Fertilisers is seen declining as it has closed down operations in some of its units. Similarly, United Spirits stock will also be in focus as the company has discontinued its manufacturing at its Hooghly unit.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 23.Feb.2015 - 28.Feb.2015

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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 23 to 28.02.2015

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Stock indices are seen in a range next week in the run up to the Union budget and the expiry of derivatives contract on Thursday could cause some volatility. The National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended down 0.7% or 61.70 points at 8833.60 points while the Standard and Poor's BSE Sensex ended 0.8% or 230.86 points lower at 29231.41 points.

Stocks of Jindal Steel and Power and DLF could fall as they will be excluded from the Nifty
from March 27 while YES Bank and Idea Cellular stocks could rise because of their inclusion in the index.

Among sectoral indices, infrastructure, capital goods, realty and defence stocks will do well, as they could be in focus ahead of the budget. As a volatile week is seen ahead, defensive stocks are seen as safe havens. FMCG, IT and pharma stocks will generally be considered as safe havens. Banking stocks are seen as volatile and hence are advised to be avoidedin the coming week. In case of decline, PSU bank, energy and metal stocks may attract fresh selling pressure so plan your positions accordingly.
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 9.Feb.2015 - 13.Feb.2015

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IT Stocks Outlook for the Week – 09 to 13.02.2015

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Benchmark indices are expected to be volatile in a week punctuated by data and events ranging from the outcome of Delhi Assembly elections to the release of figures on the country's gross domestic product, inflation, and manufacturing output.

Over the weekend, the market will also follow developments in Greece, as the country's prime minister announces his economic policies while taking the vote of confidence in Parliament. Stocks of power majors will be the worst hit. In its last stint leading the Delhi government, the Aam Aadmi Party had initiated a tirade against alleged overpriced tariffs by Delhi's power distribution companies owned by Tata Power and Reliance Infrastructure.

The election results will be announced on Tuesday. Market participants will also take cues from the Oct-Dec earnings of eight Nifty companies State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, DLF, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra and Cipla. As markets are likely to be choppy, advised avoiding high-beta counters in leveraged positions and prefer information technology and fast moving consumer goods stocks.

In the next week, the National Stock Exchange's Nifty faces resistance at 8775 points and has
support at 8565 points. Yesterday, the Index closed at 8661.05, down 50.65 points or 0.6%.
Banking, metal and automobile stocks will continue to weigh on the benchmark indices. The
market may gain support from commodity-based stocks, such as Reliance Industries, Cairn India, and Sesa Sterlite.

Among companies that announced their corporate earnings post market hours yesterday, NMDC may trade with a strong upward trend on Monday. Yesterday, the stock closed at 141.05 rupees.

Tata Chemicals is seen continuing its gains on Monday following the company's robust Oct-Dec earnings. On the other hand, stocks of GAIL (India) may decline, as the company reported lower-than-estimated earnings in Oct-Dec.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: 2.Feb.2015 - 6.Feb.2015

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week - 02 to 06.02.2015

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The consolidation in equities is expected to continue next week and the underlying sentiment is
slightly weak after major banks reported disappointing earnings. Corporate earnings and Reserve
Bank of India's monetary policy are the key events to be watched.

The RBI's sixth bi-monthly monetary policy, to be released on Tuesday, however, may largely
turn out to be a non-event, as the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged after
the surprise 25-basis-point cut announced earlier this month. Most expect the RBI to take the
next rate cut only after the Union Budget. Therefore, earnings will take centre stage.

However, some traders see yesterday's fall as the start of a correction before the pre-budget rally
actually begins. Bank stocks, which fell sharply yesterday, are expected to fall further next week,
which will also weigh on benchmark indices. Banking stocks, which had run up quite a bit since
the last two weeks will be trading with a downward bias in the next week.

While banks are expected to trade weak, information technology stocks are seen doing well,
which may provide some downside support to the market.

Stock of Coal India, whose offer for sale received an overwhelming response may face further
selling pressure on Monday, but the downside is seen limited and the correction in the stock as a
buying opportunity. Automobile stocks will be in focus on Monday as companies will release
their monthly sales data on Sunday.

Index majors such as Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Tata Power, ACC, Punjab National
Bank, Lupin, GAIL (India), and Hero MotoCorp will release their quarterly earnings next week.
Grasim Industries will report its earnings on Saturday (Today).

Among others, Tech Mahindra is expected to rise on Monday as the company posted higher than expected net profit for Oct-Dec, and also announced 1-for-1 bonus issue and 2-for-1 stock split.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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